Navigating the Threat Horizon: Key Regional Flashpoints and Their Global Implications in 2025
The global security landscape is undergoing rapid and significant changes, presenting the United States with an increasingly complex array of national security threats. This evolving environment is characterized by expanding traditional military challenges, the accelerating impact of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and cyber capabilities, and a notable trend of growing cooperation among U.S. competitors and adversaries. These nations—primarily China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—are deepening their ties to undermine the influence of the United States and its allies, leveraging military, diplomatic, and economic support for one another's conflicts and operations. This interconnectivity means that regional security flashpoints often have significant global implications, creating a challenging threat horizon for 2025 and beyond.
Here are some of the key regional security flashpoints identified in the assessment and their broader global implications:
Threats to the U.S. Homeland and Southern Border
The physical territory of the United States and its southern border face multifaceted threats from both strategic competitors and non-state actors. Adversaries are advancing their missile capabilities, including traditional ballistic, aeroballistic, and cruise missiles, as well as novel systems like hypersonic glide vehicles, specifically designed to target the Homeland and complicate U.S. defenses. North Korea now possesses an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the continental United States. Beyond kinetic threats, adversaries continue to seek ways to compromise U.S. cyber networks and critical infrastructure. China's cyber actors have been observed pre-positioning for potential attacks on U.S. critical infrastructure should a major conflict with the United States be perceived as imminent. Russian cyber operations also target U.S.-associated networks for espionage and conduct attacks against critical infrastructure, potentially disrupting key utilities.
Non-state actors also pose direct threats. Terrorist groups exploit persistent migration flows to evade authorities, with individuals potentially tied to groups like ISIS having entered the United States via the southern border. ISIS is expected to attempt high-profile attacks in the West, and affiliates in Afghanistan (ISIS-Khorasan) and Yemen (Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula) pose significant threats to the United States. Furthermore, Mexico-based cartels and other violent organizations are major drivers of violence and have established drug trafficking infrastructure and influence within the United States that directly threatens national security. The flow of fentanyl across the southwest border remains a substantial concern, despite fluctuations in seizures. The increasing availability and capability of Unmanned Systems (UxS), particularly when enhanced by AI and other technologies, present a growing threat for surveillance and attacks against critical infrastructure or military installations within the Homeland.
Growing Cooperation Among U.S. Competitors and Adversaries
A significant trend accelerating the complexity of the global threat landscape is the deepening cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Leaders in these countries are strengthening their ties in a drive to undermine the influence of the United States and its allies. This collaboration primarily occurs through bilateral channels, supporting each other in regional conflicts, working together to evade sanctions, and pressuring the West. Russia's war in Ukraine has specifically accelerated this cooperation, with North Korea and Iran providing significant military materiel to supplement Russia's stressed stockpiles. In return, Russia is expanding its sharing of space, nuclear, and missile technology, expertise, and materials with China, Iran, and North Korea, which is expected to enable advancements in their weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs over the next three to five years.
China continues to advance its partnership with Russia, supporting Russia in international fora and expanding military exercises, even conducting combined air and maritime patrols near the Arctic. While China is reticent to provide overt lethal military aid to Russia due to potential costs, it legitimizes Russia's global actions. Iran seeks cooperation to mitigate its diplomatic isolation and sanctions, leveraging its sale of UAVs and missiles to Russia to acquire advanced military technology and expanding its space program with Russian assistance. North Korea is likely receiving reciprocal military support from Russia for its aid in Ukraine, strengthening their relationship, potentially as an attempt to counterbalance China's leverage over Pyongyang.
China's Military Modernization and Regional Assertiveness
China aims to become the preeminent power in East Asia and challenge the United States globally. A key regional flashpoint is China's ongoing pressure campaign against Taiwan and its contested territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS), particularly against the Philippines. China's campaign of diplomatic, information, military, and economic pressure on Taiwan seeks to advance its long-term objective of unification, deter independence, and test the U.S.'s commitment to Taiwan's defense. While China appears willing to defer seizing Taiwan by force if unification can be negotiated and the costs outweigh the benefits, its military options include blockades, island seizures, and a full-scale invasion.
China is rapidly modernizing its military across all domains, specifically to enable it to seize Taiwan by force, project power in the western Pacific, and disrupt any U.S. intervention in a regional conflict. This includes significant increases in its defense budget, advancements in nuclear capabilities (expecting over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030), and expansion of its missile inventory. In the SCS, China's coast guard and maritime militia are aggressively asserting claims through actions like using water cannons and dangerous maneuvering against Philippine ships, risking escalation in the region. Beyond regional flashpoints, China is expanding its ability to operate globally and establish overseas logistics and basing infrastructure, which could potentially threaten U.S. global operations or international commerce during a conflict. China's efforts in establishing facilities, such as the Joint Logistics and Training Center at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia, highlight its intent to project power at greater distances.
Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Global Influence
Russia views the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle and remains committed to victory and a partition of the Ukrainian state. While Russia seeks to avoid direct conflict with NATO, it continues to employ asymmetric capabilities against the United States and allies, including cyber and information campaigns, and possesses strategic nuclear forces capable of reaching the U.S. Homeland. The conflict in Ukraine continues to be a major flashpoint, with the battlefield outlook potentially trending in Russia's favor without robust Western aid. Russia is employing a strategy of attrition, aiming to degrade Ukraine's will and resources to impose its terms in any future settlement, comfortable with slow advances despite high personnel and equipment losses. Russia is also seeking to regain the global influence it perceives it lost after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russia seeks to enhance its force projection globally by pursuing basing or port call agreements and expanding defense ties with countries in the Global South. It uses covert action, information operations, cyber capabilities, and proxies, particularly in Europe, to undermine Western cohesion and support for Ukraine. Russia also aims to increase its influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia and actively seeks to expand its footprint in Africa through arms sales, paramilitary deployments (like the Wagner group in the Central African Republic), and military access agreements, competing directly with the West. Russian disinformation campaigns are leveraged to push anti-Western narratives and foster resistance to U.S. presence, particularly in Africa.
Iran and its Proxy Forces
Iran and its network of proxy forces, known as the Axis of Resistance, are central to volatility in the Middle East. Recent Israeli strikes against Iranian interests have prompted Iran to directly retaliate against Israel, a departure from its usual strategy, threatening protracted regional conflict. Iran is attempting to exploit the Israel-HAMAS conflict to isolate Israel, expand its regional influence, and enhance its proxies' capabilities. It is expected to continue providing lethal aid to groups like Iraqi Shia militias, Syrian militants, and the Huthis to impose costs on Israel and threaten U.S. interests. The Huthis' attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean since late 2023 pose a significant threat to freedom of navigation and global trade, having decreased Red Sea transit by 70 percent. These attacks, targeting civilian and U.S. commercial ships, demonstrate the global reach and implications of regional conflicts fueled by Iran-backed groups. While Iran likely seeks to avoid direct conflict with the United States, it continues assassination plotting against U.S. and Israeli targets globally.
Regarding WMD capabilities, Iran is undertaking activities that reduce the time needed to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a first nuclear device to probably less than one week. Although its senior leaders may not have decided to restart a nuclear weapons program, they have threatened to revisit their nuclear doctrine if Iranian nuclear facilities are attacked. Iran also continues to pursue advancements in its chemical and biological weapons programs.
North Korea's Military and WMD Advancements
North Korea is assessed to be in its strongest strategic position in decades, possessing the military means to threaten U.S. forces and allies in Northeast Asia and increasingly, the U.S. Homeland. The country continues to develop its missile and WMD programs, including ICBMs capable of reaching the continental United States, expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile, and pursuing tactical nuclear weapons. North Korea actively proliferates ballistic missile systems and related technology, as demonstrated by its provision of missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine. Beyond missiles and nuclear weapons, North Korea also probably has a biological warfare program and almost certainly has a chemical warfare program with offensive capabilities. North Korea's ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles (SLVs) could potentially be used as a basic antisatellite platform. North Korea also employs offensive cyber capabilities not only for illicit revenue generation (like cryptocurrency theft) but also for global cyberespionage against foreign officials and defense industries to gain insights and aid its weapons development.
Instability and Adversary Outreach in Latin America and Africa
Socioeconomic instability, gang activity, and humanitarian crises in regions like Latin America and Africa create security threats and vulnerabilities that U.S. competitors are exploiting. China and Russia are actively expanding their political, economic, and security influence in these regions. China is solidifying trade ties, seeking critical minerals, and working to diminish Taiwan's diplomatic partners, while Russia is courting support, including military engagements like deploying a nuclear-powered submarine to Cuba in 2024. In Africa, African governments, frustrated with perceived Western limitations, are increasingly engaging with China and Russia to meet their security needs. Russia is seen by some as an alternative security partner providing direct assistance without stipulations, using disinformation campaigns to undermine democratic processes and U.S. presence. Terrorist group activity, including powerful ISIS and Al-Qa'ida affiliates, is also significant in Africa, posing threats to U.S. interests and potentially serving as springboards for plotting elsewhere.
Tensions in South Asia
South Asia faces a complex security environment marked by terrorism, mistrust between neighbors, and military/nuclear modernization. The long-standing mistrust between India and Pakistan, coupled with their military and nuclear modernization efforts (Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and is pursuing battlefield nuclear weapons), creates a persistent risk of escalation, as seen in cross-border skirmishes. While India views China as its primary adversary, tensions also exist along the disputed border with China, though efforts are being made to reduce immediate military confrontation. Terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan continues to challenge regional stability. Regional powers are also being drawn closer into the spheres of influence of Russia and China.
Competition in the Polar Regions
The Arctic and Antarctic are increasingly becoming areas of competition. Russia and China are actively increasing their presence, infrastructure, and capabilities in the Arctic to shape international norms and advance security and economic objectives. Russia prioritizes the Arctic for its strategic resources and critical military infrastructure. China is developing scientific, technological, and naval capabilities to operate in the Arctic and seeks expanded access to natural resources and shipping routes like the Northern Sea Route. China is also expanding its space observation infrastructure in the Arctic, which may provide capabilities to monitor U.S. satellites over the region. Russia remains China's strongest Arctic partner, cooperating on military patrols and economic development, although Russia is wary of China's ambitions but likely compelled to make concessions due to financial and technological dependence on China. In the Antarctic, China is investing in infrastructure that could potentially collect signals intelligence over Australia and New Zealand.
The Role of Advanced Technology
Underpinning these flashpoints and global implications is the accelerating pace of innovation in advanced technologies. AI, biotechnology, quantum sciences, microelectronics, space, cyber, and unmanned systems are rapidly transforming the nature of conflict. Adversaries recognize the potential of these dual-use technologies, which are becoming more available and affordable, allowing even less capable actors to enhance their military capabilities. China is aggressively pursuing dominance in critical advanced technology fields, integrating them into the PLA to field disruptive capabilities, and seeking intellectual property through various means. While Russia's efforts are constrained by sanctions, it still pursues advanced tech for military purposes. These technological advancements provide new means for adversaries and non-state actors to threaten U.S. interests across multiple domains, from cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to the development of WMDs and advanced surveillance capabilities.
In conclusion, the 2025 global security environment is characterized by interconnected regional flashpoints, where the actions of U.S. competitors and adversaries, often in increasing cooperation, leverage advanced technologies to challenge U.S. interests and global stability. Addressing these dynamic threats requires a comprehensive understanding of their regional manifestations and their far-reaching global implications.
